Mental models, cognitive biases, and strategic frameworks for clearer decisions.
Short guides with definitions, examples, and how to apply each idea.
Decision lenses that simplify complexity and improve judgment under uncertainty.
Activation Energy
The initial effort to start something is often the hardest part.
Alignment Problem
Optimizing the wrong objective produces the wrong results, efficiently.
Antifragility
Some systems get stronger from stress and disorder.
Asymmetric Risk
Seek situations where the upside far outweighs the downside.
Bayesian Updating
Revise your beliefs proportionally as new evidence arrives.
Bottleneck
The narrowest constraint sets the throughput of the entire system.
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Predictable thinking errors that quietly distort reasoning and outcomes.
Action Bias
Doing something feels better than waiting, even when waiting is wiser.
Affect Heuristic
Current emotions silently steer risk and benefit judgments.
Ambiguity Aversion
Known risks are preferred over unknown risks, even when unknown may be better.
Anchoring Bias
First numbers or narratives pull later judgment toward them.
Authority Bias
Expertise in one domain is over-trusted in another.
Availability Heuristic
What is vivid or recent feels more common than it is.
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Operating systems for planning and acting when stakes are high or information is incomplete.
Barbell Strategy
Combine safety on one side with selective asymmetric upside on the other.
Blue Ocean Strategy
Create uncontested market space instead of fighting over existing demand.
Cynefin Framework
Match your decision approach to the type of problem you face.
Flywheel Effect
Small consistent pushes build compounding momentum over time.
Fog of War
Decide with incomplete information and changing conditions.
Jobs to Be Done
People don't buy products — they hire them to make progress.
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