Mental Models
Decision lenses that simplify complexity and improve judgment under uncertainty.
50 entries
Activation Energy
The initial effort to start something is often the hardest part.
Alignment Problem
Optimizing the wrong objective produces the wrong results, efficiently.
Antifragility
Some systems get stronger from stress and disorder.
Asymmetric Risk
Seek situations where the upside far outweighs the downside.
Bayesian Updating
Revise your beliefs proportionally as new evidence arrives.
Bottleneck
The narrowest constraint sets the throughput of the entire system.
Chesterton's Fence
Understand why something exists before you remove it.
Circle of Competence
Know where your judgment is reliable and where it is not.
Comparative Advantage
Focus on what you do relatively best, even if others do some things absolutely better.
Compounding
Small, consistent gains accumulate into outsized results over time.
Counterfactual Thinking
Compare what happened against what would have happened otherwise.
Critical Mass
Below a threshold nothing happens; above it, everything changes.
Diminishing Returns
Each additional unit of effort eventually yields less incremental value.
Divergent vs. Convergent Thinking
Generate many options first, then narrow to the best one.
Emergence
Complex behavior arises from simple components interacting.
Falsifiability
A useful claim must specify what evidence would prove it wrong.
Feedback Loops
Outputs circle back as inputs, amplifying or stabilizing a system.
First Principles Thinking
Reason from fundamentals instead of analogy alone.
Game Theory Basics
Your optimal move depends on what others will do.
Hanlon's Razor
Do not assume malice when incompetence or oversight is a simpler explanation.
Incentive Design
People optimize for what they are rewarded for, not what you intend.
Inversion
Solve forward problems by thinking backward.
Lateral Thinking
Solve problems by approaching them from unexpected angles.
Leverage
Multiply the output of your effort through tools, systems, or people.
Local vs. Global Optima
The best nearby option may not be the best overall option.
Map Is Not Territory
Models are abstractions, not reality itself.
Margin of Safety
Build a buffer between your plan and the worst plausible outcome.
Marginal Thinking
Evaluate decisions based on the next unit, not the average.
Mental Accounting
We treat money differently depending on which mental bucket it sits in.
Network Effects
A product becomes more valuable as more people use it.
Occam's Razor
Favor the simplest explanation that fits the facts.
Opportunity Cost
Every yes silently includes a no.
Pareto Principle (80/20)
A small set of causes often drives most outcomes.
Power Laws
A few items dominate while the vast majority contribute little.
Premature Optimization
Optimizing before understanding the problem wastes effort on the wrong things.
Prisoner's Dilemma
Individual rational choices can produce collectively irrational outcomes.
Probabilistic Thinking
Think in likelihoods and ranges instead of certainties.
Redundancy
Duplicate critical components so a single failure does not cascade.
Regression to the Mean
Extreme outcomes tend to be followed by more average ones.
Reversible vs. Irreversible Decisions
Match decision speed to how hard the decision is to undo.
Second-Order Thinking
Look past immediate effects to downstream consequences.
Signal vs. Noise
Distinguish meaningful patterns from random variation.
Steel-Manning
Argue against the strongest version of an opposing view, not the weakest.
Supply and Demand
Price and value are set by the balance between availability and desire.
Systems Thinking
Understand behavior by examining the whole system, not just the parts.
The Lindy Effect
The longer something has survived, the longer it is likely to last.
Thought Experiment
Test ideas by reasoning through hypothetical scenarios without real-world cost.
Tragedy of the Commons
Shared resources get depleted when individual incentives override collective welfare.
Velocity vs. Speed
Direction matters as much as pace.
Via Negativa
Improve by removing what harms rather than adding what might help.